What’s the Real Risk of Driving a Toyota? Study adds Perspective to Crisis

Toyota has stressed again and again the instances of sudden acceleration are “very, very rare.”   At  last count, the best estimate is that 34 fatalities are attributable to sudden acceleration incidents over the past decade.  While Toyota has tried to add perspective to the debate, their attempts come off as self-serving and somewhat dismissive in spite of their emphasis of how seriously they take the issue.

Enter some really smart folks at Carnegie-Mellon University who are applying some whiz-bang statistically based analysis to determine the real risk, or relative risk of driving a Toyota vs. other transportation choices.

Carnegie-Mellon Professor Paul Fischbeck, a statistician and expert is risk analysis found Toyota’s accelerator problem raises the risk of fatality by 2%.   Compare that to the risk of dying by parking your Toyota and walking a mile instead.  That raises the risk of fatality a whopping 1900% or is 19 times more deadly than driving a Toyota.  Driving while talking on a cell phone is much riskier than a Toyota with a potential accelerator problem.

If we were to put this in gambling terms, the chances of you dying because of a faulty accelerator is 2 in 1,000,000.  Those are the same odds of flipping 19 coins… and having all 19 come up heads.

Fischbeck concludes the accelerator issue is potentially deadly, and the defect should be corrected.  But the threat to our safety is probably much less dangerous than eating, drinking, talking, texting, or any number of other unsafe behaviors we CHOOSE to engage in when behind the wheel.    You can read the full study:  

 http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20020422/CMULOGO

Just make sure you are not in a moving vehicle while reading it.

Buyers Continue to Flee Toyota, Lexus and Scion Too

The number of car buyers saying they will not consider a Toyota has grown by a third in the past week as the company’s recall woes have mushroomed.   Kbb.com (Kelly Blue Book) and its Market Intelligence research unit surveyed visitors to the website last week and found  21% who had considered Toyota now would not consider Toyota models for their next purchase.  This week the percentage has jumped to 27%.    Even more alarming for the company, 49% who defected say they may not ever consider the brand again.  

Consumer discontent extends beyond models subject to recall, and even brands.  Lexus and Scion are suffering as well.  

28 percent of those who said they were considering a Scion and 23 percent of those who said they were considering a Lexus prior to the Toyota recalls, now say they are no longer considering those brands. 

Kelly is the industry bible for used vehicle values.  It has already downgraded value estimations for Toyota products by 1-3% since February 5th.  Today the company announced it will adjust values another 1.5% lower when it releases new valuations Feb. 12 because of unsold models building on dealer lots.  Even prices for new 2010 Toyota Prius hybrids are taking a hit estimated between $1000 and $1500. 

Ford is the largest beneficiary from Toyota’s troubles with 16% now considering Ford saying they were not considering the brand before the spate of recalls.  Chevy is getting the second-biggest boost with 8% embracing consideration of Chevy who had not before.  Both Ford and Chevy are offering specific incentives targeting Toyota customers. 

Volvo Launching New Pedestrian Protection Technology

It’s a frightening thought.  You are momentarily distracted and don’t see a pedestrian cross in front of your vehicle, or a child jumps out from between two parked cars.  You can only hope your reflexes are fast enough to avoid a heartbreaking tragedy.  Now Volvo is offering pedestrian detection technology with fully automatic braking.  If a pedestrian wanders into the path of the car, the new Volvo S60 will detect their presence, warn the driver, and apply automatic stopping power if the driver fails to respond in time.  The company says the braking power can bring the car to a timely stop at speeds below 35 km/hr.   Faster than that, the goal is to minimize injury by significantly slowing the vehicle.   Europe experiences twice the rate of pedestrian accidents over the U.S. 

The system leverages existing radar technology used for adaptive cruise control to detect pedestrians.    Volvo will official unveil the system March 2nd at the Geneva Motor Show.

Prius Owners Await Expected Brake Recall

Toyota sources are telling the New York Times the automaker will recall over 300,000 Toyota Prius hybrids because of intermittent brake failure when the car goes over a bumpy roadway.

The recall is the latest in a string of product defects undermining the company’s once sterling image for product quality and safety.    Sources say a formal recall announcement could come anytime, with a decision on a European recall being made by Feb. 10.  There have been no complaints of brake incidents in Europe according to Toyota’s spokesman there. 

Japanese safety officials ordered Toyota to mount an investigation after complaints began mounting from owners of 2010 models of the popular hybrid in December.   U.S. safety regulators ordered an investigation last week.  Drivers complain there is a brief hesitation in braking when the vehicle is on uneven surfaces. 

Toyota officials acknowledged the brake issue Thursday, stating they believed it was a software problem which had been corrected in models made since late January.   There were questions about why the company had addressed the problem at the factory, but not notified owners of models made before the late January fix. 

There are also indications from a number of sources the recall could extend to the company’s Lexus HS250h luxury hybrid.   The Lexus shares a braking system with the Prius.

Pontiac Vibe Added to Floor Mat Recall, Parts Shipped for Sticky Pedal

General Motors is recalling  2009-2010 Pontiac Vibe compacts because their accelerator pedals may become entrapped in floor mats.  The recall is related to the massive recall announced by Toyota last month.  The Toyota Matrix and Pontiac Vibe are virtually the same car — mechanically.  Both were produced at a factory in Fremont, California owned and operated jointly by the two companies.   The company says it will notify owners when it has a fix for the problem, offering these instructions in the meantime: “For now, customers are urged to take out any removable floor mat and place it in the trunk of the Vibe and not replace it with any other mat. Customers who choose against taking out the removable floor mat are encouraged to check the operation of the accelerator, brake and, if applicable, the clutch pedals to assure the floor mat does not interfere with them.”

The company announced early this morning it is shipping repair parts to dealers beginning today to address the sticky pedal situation identified by Toyota.  Back in late January, GM  said the Pontiac was “safe to drive” following the announced Toyota Matrix recall.   In a statement Jan. 22 GM said, “To the best of our knowledge, the Vibe vehicles were safely brought to a stop. We are investigating each of the claims.”  Now the company is taking remedial action.

Letters will be mailed to Vibe customers Feb. 16  instructing them to contact their Pontiac dealer after Feb. 22.   A precision-cut steel reinforcement bar will be inserted into the accelerator assembly.  The procedure should take about 30 minutes, though some repairs may take longer.

GM escaped much of the recall fallout from the Toyota pedal issues because it was in the process of winding down the Pontiac brand.

Camry/Corolla Sink, Buick/GMC Soar In Wake of Recall Crisis

A leading industry research group is forecasting demand for Toyota vehicles has dropped a whopping 28% since the announcement of massive recalls related to the company’s problems with unintended acceleration.   And the damage isn’t just isolated to the brands under recall.

What’s more alarming for dealers is the crash in demand for the top-selling Camry and Corolla models, down nearly 45%, according to Autometric’s Pulse, a predictive forecasting tool.   Only the Toyota 4Runner has experienced an increase in demand since the company’s quality crisis.  

GM is a major beneficiary of Toyota’s woes, with demand at GMC up 19%, Buick 17%.  Ford is seeing a 10% gain in demand.  Other brands have shown little or no change the analysts say. 

GM and Ford both are targeting Toyota customers by offering them special incentives for Toyota trade-ins. 

Toyota’s Scion and Lexus brands appear to be faring better with demand off 8%.  Lexus recalls are getting less publicity and involve trimming accelerator pedals and removing floor mats. 

Toyota’s demand decline as of 2/3: 

RAV-4 -53% 

Avalon -45% 

Corolla -44% 

Camry -42% 

Tundra -39% 

Highlander -34% 

Sequoia -34% 

Matrix -33% 

Sienna -26% 

Yaris -21% 

Venza -21% 

Tacoma -12% 

Land Cruiser -9% 

Prius -8% 

FJ Cruiser -2% 

4Runner +18% 

Toyota Admits Brake Flaw, Tells Factories in December, Little Guidance for Owners

Toyota now admits there are problems with the anti-lock brake system on its new 2010 Prius hybrid.  The company is not issuing a recall, nor giving owners of the car guidance on what to do with the vehicle.  And they are not offering details on the exact nature of the problem.  The story of this new defect began breaking Wednesday with word Japanese officials had demanded an investigation after 14 complaints of partial brake failure on the top-selling hybrid.  American safety regulators acknowledged 100 similar complaints in the U.S.

It is the latest blemish to Toyota’s once bullet-proof reputation for quality, and getting ahead of potential safety defects.    Consumer Reports Magazine’s Chief of Automotive Testing, David Champion, told NBC’s Today Show, “the brakes don’t actually fail. It”s this momentary (Gasp!) when you don’t think they’ll work and then they do work.  Not a big safety (threat) but a bit scary.”

Complaints suggest the braking hesitation could be as long as one second.  Yet even a one second delay in braking can make a huge difference in the likelihood and severity of an accident.  A car travelling 30 miles per hour covers 45 feet per second.  A speed of 70 miles an hour converts to 105 feet per second.   Put another way:  a once second delay in braking will add 105 feet to the stopping distance you need to avoid an accident in an emergency.

If it’s your car with brake hesitation, it’s more than just “a bit scary.”

Toyota officials say a recall is possible but gave a muddy answer when pressed on the likelihood, telling Bloomberg News, “the possibility of a recall is not zero.”  Huh?  Perhaps the urgency was lost in translation, but the response sounds not only dismissive, but confusing. 

This kind of mushy guidance is not helping Toyota’s image at a time when there are questions from Main St. to Capitol Hill on whether the company responded rapidly enough to issues of unintended acceleration and whether it informed the public in a timely fashion.

A Toyota spokesperson told an impromptu news conference, the Prius brake problem was identified in December, and a fix was supplied at the factory level.  The company insists any 2010 Prius produced since late January should be fine.

But once again, the delay in notifying the public is raising questions on whether Toyota is covering up.  Here’s the timeline: 

August 2009:  Japanese safety officials order Toyota to investigate braking issues with its hybrids.

Nov.-Dec. 2009:  Braking complaints from Toyota dealers and consumer complaints filed with U.S./Japanese safety agencies spike.  The company identifies a software problem with the mini-computer controlling the vehicle’s transition from hydraulic braking to regenerative braking.

Late Jan. 2010:  Engineers re-write the software in the braking computer and begin producing Prius models with modified computer programming.

Feb. 4 2010:  After 5 months of investigation, testing, identification, and correction, the company publicly admits the problem.

The company could certainly have released a safety advisory in December once the problem was verified and it’s source identified.  And yet again, the factories received a warning and fix before consumers.  In fact, according to the Wall St. Journal, Toyota still doesn’t know how it will re-program computers in cars already on the road. 

Company officials say this potential recall may also affect owners of the Lexus HS250h Hybrid Luxury Sedan. 

Toyota Suffers, But Sees Signs of Rebound

Car shoppers fled from Toyota in droves immediately following the massive recalls involving floor mats, and stick accelerator pedals.  Kelly Blue Book’s Brand Watch found consideration of Toyota products dropped by nearly half in the days following the recall announcements, from 29% to 18%.  Toyota now trails Ford and Chevrolet.   Even vehicles not included in the recalls saw a significant drop in page views on kbb.com the Kelly website.  

But Toyota customers also expressed optimism this is a temporary setback for the automaker and that it would recover.  According to Kelly:   

“More than 30 percent of those surveyed said that Toyota is currently experiencing a challenge, but will offer better products in the future. In addition, 28 percent said that Toyota has had fewer recalls than other manufacturers, and [the current recall] does not change the fact that they produce great products.” 

Edmunds.com tracked a rapid decline in Toyota’s purchase intent from 13.9% to 9.7% in the midst of the recall frenzy.  But the company has seen consideration of its models steadily increase since it confidently announced it had a fix for its sudden acceleration problem.   Edmunds top analyst reports consideration is now nearing 12% and increasing steadily.    Honda, Ford and Hyundai have gained the most from Toyota’s problems according to Edmunds. 

But there is growing concern Toyota’s fix is no fix at all, or at best, treats only part of the problem.   The company has taken repeated P.R. hits and now the government is apparently launching two additional investigations, with new questions being raised about brakes on the Prius.  We will see if  Toyota’s rebound can withstand a steady drumbeat of bad news. 

Electronics, Electromagnetic Interference and Prius Fall Under Scrutiny

Within the halls of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and Congress, officials are apparently unconvinced Toyota has solved its sudden acceleration problems.  NHTSA sources are telling the L.A. Times it will initiate a “fresh review” of the electronic throttle control systems we have profiled in these reports.  The throttles were introduced in 2004 and complaints of runaway cars increased 5-fold afterward.  Toyota officials insist they have thoroughly examined the electronic systems on board the recalled vehicles and have found no defect responsible for unintended acceleration.  The company is focussing its attention on pedals entrapment in floor mats, and accelerators that over time may stick.  It will mount notification nationwide for 2.3 million owners who may have the accelerators in question.   The company is shipping replacement parts to dealers and factories for installation.  But there is growing concern it is an incomplete cure.

Meantime, another federal official close to safety regulators says NHTSA is investigating whether electromagnetic interference (EMI) could be causing glitches with vehicle speed controls in all cars and trucks, including Toyota products.   A Wayne State University engineering professor who consults with the industry believes cell phone signals, radar pulses, and other ambient electrical static, could be causing the problem.   USA Today reports a British expert on EMI believes the pulses are a “likely cause” of some of Toyota’s acceleration problems.   It is the basis of two class action lawsuits against the automaker.

Toyota dismisses the allegations, saying late Tuesday: “After many years of exhaustive testing — by us and other outside agencies — we have found no evidence of a problem with our electronic throttle control system that could have caused unwanted acceleration. Our vehicles go through extensive electromagnetic radiation testing dynamically.”   Engineers have studied this since the 1970’s but have never conclusively linked the issue to a specific problem.

Nevertheless, a guy who knows a little about computers, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, says his Prius is having runaway acceleration problems.  Wozniak made the comments at a Discovery

 The Prius, the top-selling Hybrid in the U.S., has also been hit with more than 100 complaints of brake problems over the past year in the U.S.  and 14 complaints in Japan.    The Japanese Trade Ministry has ordered the automaker to investigate the issue.   The complaints involve the newly re-designed Prius, with drivers say the brakes do not work, or suffer reduced effectiveness.  There are no recalls.

How Will Toyota Get 100% Compliance with Pedal Fix?

Toyota officials re-emphasized overnight they expect 100% consumer compliance with its recall and remedy related to unintended acceleration.  Those may be unrealistic expectations.   While we’ve heard from some highly emotional consumers frightened by the prospect of driving a car with the potential for runaway acceleration, we haven’t heard from thousands of apathetic consumers who, based on their own problem-free experience say, “If it aint broke…”

Dealers know that latter group well, and also know that in most cases they are in the majority. 

The average “take rate” for normal recalls is between 10 and 15%.  Toyota corporate officials believe because of publicity and public concern, the take rate for this recall could run as high as 67%.   Metro Detroit dealers are anticipating rates closer to 30-50%.

Toyota promises extended hours and 24-hour service to meet anticipated demand.  It is not offering incentives to lure reluctant customers to take the medicine.  The company is relying on dealers for that.  Some of the offered amenities:   Pickup or valet service, car washes, detailing, food and drink vouchers, gift cards, and discount service coupons.

 They have not seen a stampede of owners jamming service counters to address the floor mat issue, which requires the shortening of gas pedals.  That recall was announced in November.

It’s in all our interests, and Toyota’s to get these vehicles in for service.   If you drive a non-Toyota vehicle, do you want to be sharing the road with a vehicle prone to rare instances of uncontrolled acceleration?   Until brake over-ride systems are installed, I sure don’t want to put my faith in the driver of that runaway car.  For Toyota, it’s about doing the right thing, but also about limiting liability exposure.  The litigious sharks smell blood in the water.  10 lawsuits are awaiting class action approval, and that number will grow for anyone who has the slightest inkling their recent accident may have been the result of unintended acceleration, all evidence to the contrary. 

Toyota says it will begin notification of consumers at the end of the week.  These will be conventional recall notices with no added goodies…by the book.   But a company spokesman says if the compliance falls short of expectations the company will put any number of undetermined incentives into the mix to drive the number higher.